Sell USDINR; target of 71.25 - 71.15: ICICI Direct

ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR

Spot Currency

The rupee ended slightly weaker on Friday as rising geopolitical tensions in the Indian subcontinent as well as strength in the US$ weighed. However, it is expected to open slightly weaker today while positive global cues would support the rupee • The dollar ended the session on a lower note as expectations of forward moving US-China trade talks as well as a recovery in risk sentiment weighed on the dollar. The Euro is currently trading higher as weakness in the dollar would provide support for the common currency to rise.

Benchmark yield

Government bonds declined as domestic yields rose on Friday. Rising crude oil prices are negative for domestic debt while weakness in the rupee also aided outflows from debt markets • US treasury yields rose mildly tracking positive progress in USChina trade talks. Overall, the Fed's stance on economic growth and inflation would provide further cues for yields.

Currency futures on NSE

The dollar-rupee February contract on the NSE was at 71.32 in the previous session. February contract open interest declined 1.15% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.

Intra-day strategy 

US$INR February futures contract (NSE)	View: Bearish on US$INR
Sell US$ in the range of 71.44 -71.50	Market Lot: US$1000
Target: 71.25 / 71.15	Stop Loss: 71.63
Support	Resistance
S1/ S2: 71.25 / 71.15	R1/R2:71.55 /71.65

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